تأثير رفع أسعار الفائدة في خمس دول خليجية
رفع المجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي سعر الفائدة الرئيسي إلى 50 نقطة أساس يوم الأربعاء باعتباره الإجراء الأكثر قوة في مكافحة التضخم المتزايد. قامت العديد من البنوك المركزية في الدول العربية برفع أسعار الفائدة، بما في ذلك المملكة العربية السعودية والإمارات العربية المتحدة والكويت والبحرين وقطر والأردن.
ومن المقرر أن يجتمع البنك المركزي المصري في 16 مايو الجاري، لمناقشة السياسة النقدية بما في ذلك رفع أسعار الفائدة.
كان قرار مجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي بمحاربة التضخم المرتفع ، والذي وصل إلى 8.5٪ في مارس ، ناتجًا عن نقص في السلع بسبب مشاكل سلسلة التوريد ، كان ذلك نتيجة لإغلاق الصين خلال كوفيد ، والان الحرب في أوكرانيا التي تأثيرها ظاهر على أسعار العديد من السلع الأساسية من الغذاء إلى الطاقة.
أسعار الفائدة هي إحدى أسلحة البنوك المركزية في خفض التضخم عن طريق أخذ الكثير من السيولة من الاقتصاد وتقويض الطلب.
ومع ذلك، فإن زيادة الاهتمام الأمريكي له أهمية كبيرة في اتجاه تحركات رأس المال حول العالم.
محفظتك الشخصية
من المتوقع أن يكون لقرار دول الخليج الخمس ، باستثناء الأردن ، زيادة أسعار الفائدة تأثير واضح على المحافظ الشخصية لمواطنيها ، وستكون البداية المتوقعة هي تكلفة قرض جديد.
لذلك ، قد تكون احتياجاتك التمويلية أكثر تكلفة في الوقت الحاضر ، وخاصة القروض ذات السعر الثابت ، حيث ينطوي ذلك على مخاطر أكبر لممولي البنوك والشركات المالية مع احتمال ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة مرة أخرى.
مثل القروض الحالية متغيرة السعر، سواء كانت قروضًا عقارية مثل تمويل السيارات، فإنها ستظهر أيضًا زيادة، وستحتاج إلى مراقبة قروضك والإبلاغ عنها خلال هذه الأوقات. تأثير على ميزانيتك الشخصية.
وهذا يعني قروض ذات معدل فائدة متغير: قروض مكونة من عنصرين، أحدهما ثابت، وهو هامش الفائدة الذي يكتسبه البنك الذي يموله ويختلف من بنك لآخر وبحسب كل عميل ومصداقيته ، بالإضافة إلى المكون العائم ، وهو سعر الفائدة الرسمي المعلن من قبل البنك المركزي.
النشاط العام
ليس ذلك فقط مع ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة ، يمكن أن تكون تكلفة تمويل الأنشطة الاقتصادية أعلى وتنخفض الجدوى الاقتصادية للعديد من المشاريع ، حيث يستثمر المستثمرون أموالهم في السفن دون خطر والعوائد المخطط لها ، مع عدم اليقين الاقتصادي. المناظر الطبيعية ووجود بنوك ذات عائد أعلى، مما قد يؤثر على جميع الأنشطة الاقتصادية.
في معظم الحالات، ستنمو الودائع المصرفية بشكل حاد مع ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة، مما قد يقلل من المعروض النقدي ويسبب انخفاض الأسعار مرة أخرى، وبالتالي التضخم، اعتمادًا على سرعة الاستجابة لقرارات الفائدة.
تقييمات الأسهم
من ناحية أخرى، يعتمد العديد من المحللين على ما يسمى “معدل العائد الخالي من المخاطر” -أو معدل المدفوعات والسندات الحكومية -لأن التدفقات النقدية المستقبلية للشركات يتم تخفيضها إلى معدل فائدة أعلى لحساب القيمة الحالية لهذا الأموال، وبالتالي كلما ارتفع معدل الخصم (مرادف للفائدة) ، انخفضت القيمة الحالية للتدفقات النقدية المستقبلية ، وبالتالي انخفض تقييم الأسهم.
من المتوقع أن تبدأ العديد من مراكز الأبحاث وبنوك الاستثمار في تعديل توصياتها والمبالغ المستهدفة للشركات التي تغطيها.
في المقابل، غالبًا ما تظهر أسهم البنوك زيادة من خلال هامش الفائدة الصافي، والذي يتم تداوله بشكل إيجابي مع ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة.
محددات الفائدة
مع زيادة أسعار الفائدة الفيدرالية الأمريكية ، تم إجبار العديد من البنوك المركزية الدولية على اتباع خطواتها ، لأنه حتى لو لم يكن معدل التضخم مسجلًا مرتفعًا بطريقة تتطلب زيادة في أسعار الفائدة ، فقد يتم إجبار هذا القرار على هذا القرار الحفاظ على تدفق رأس المال الذي يأتي إليهم. نتيجة للمنافسة مع ارتفاع سعر عائد توفره سندات الخزانة الأمريكية ، أو لأن عملتها مرتبطة مباشرة بالدولار ، وبالتالي الحاجة إلى الحفاظ على سعر الصرف بالدولار ومن المتوقع أن تشهد زيادة كبيرة مقارنة بالعديد من العملات .
سجل الدولار الأمريكي أعلى مستوى له منذ الأزمة المالية العالمية الشهر الماضي ، عاد بعد ذلك بشكل طفيف بعد قرار رفع أسعار الفائدة. ومع ذلك ، فمن المتوقع أن ترتفع أسعار الدولار مقابل العملات العالمية ، وخاصة عملات الأسواق الناشئة.
دول الخليج
بدلاً من ذلك ، أبلغت 5 بنوك مركزية في الخليج عن زيادات في أسعار الفائدة عند 50 نقطة رئيسية ، وهي: المملكة العربية السعودية والكويت والبحرين والإمارات العربية المتحدة وقطر ، مع ربط عملاتها بالدولار ، على الرغم من معدلات التضخم أقل من نظيراتها. . في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية.
وتتهم البنوك قراراتها بالتضخم العالمي المرتفع ومنع اقتصاداتها من استيراد صدمات التضخم الناجمة عن ارتفاع أسعار السلع والطاقة العالمية.
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